Nitish Kumar has been at the center of Bihar politics for over two decades. Since first becoming Chief Minister in 2000 (for just a week), he has returned to the post multiple times, often through dramatic political realignments. His reputation as a “paltu ram”—a leader who switches sides—has not dented his ability to remain relevant. If he takes oath again in 2025, it would mark his tenth swearing-in as CM
🔑 Why the NDA Still Bets on Him
Stability & Experience: The BJP and its allies continue to project Nitish as the face of governance, highlighting his long record of administrative experience.
Women’s Vote Bank: Nitish’s policies on women’s education and prohibition laws still resonate with sections of female voters.
BJP’s Strategy: Leaders like UP Deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya have publicly declared that “Nitish Kumar will become CM again on November 14”
⚔️ The Opposition’s Counter-Narrative
Mahagathbandhan’s Pitch: RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav has made jobs and welfare the centerpiece of his campaign, arguing that Bihar needs a generational shift in leadership.
Akhilesh Yadav’s Swipe: The Samajwadi Party chief recently called Nitish Kumar the BJP’s “chunavi dulha” (election groom), suggesting he is being used as a temporary face but not the real CM choice
Caste Arithmetic: Reports suggest cracks within the NDA’s caste coalition, with Mahagathbandhan gaining traction in Yadav-Muslim strongholds and among unemployed youth
The Probabilities
If NDA Holds Together: Nitish Kumar is likely to return as CM, given BJP’s organizational strength and Modi’s appeal.
If Mahagathbandhan Surges: Tejashwi Yadav could emerge as the alternative, especially if anti-incumbency consolidates.
Wildcard Factor: Smaller parties like VIP and HAM may play kingmaker in a close contest, potentially deciding whether Nitish retains the chair.
The Mood on the Ground
In Patna, voters weigh Nitish’s governance record against fatigue with his long tenure.
In rural Bihar, migration and unemployment dominate conversations, often favoring the opposition.
Among older voters, Nitish is still seen as a steady hand, while youth lean toward change.
Nitish Kumar’s fate as CM hinges on whether his image as a seasoned administrator outweighs the perception of political opportunism. The NDA insists he will return, but the Mahagathbandhan is betting on Bihar’s hunger for change. The November 14 verdict will decide if Nitish Kumar extends his remarkable run—or if Bihar turns the page to a new chapter.