The Shadow of 'Jungle Raj' and Family Baggage
Tejashwi's biggest hurdle was the enduring stigma of his father Lalu Prasad Yadav's era. The NDA relentlessly invoked the 1990s-2005 "jungle raj" of lawlessness, kidnappings, and corruption, with Union Home Minister Amit Shah quipping that a Tejashwi win would spawn a "department for abductions." BJP posters airbrushed Lalu from RJD imagery, but voters remembered. Tejashwi's own 11 pending criminal cases, including charges in the IRCTC scam and land-for-jobs irregularities, fueled narratives of dynastic entitlement.
Caste Calculus and Alliance Fractures
Bihar's politics is a caste tinderbox, and Tejashwi's MY (Muslim-Yadav) consolidation—RJD's core 23% vote share—held firm in Seemanchal and Yadav heartlands, netting 65-70 seats. But the MGB's internal rifts hurt: Direct contests between allies on 11 seats diluted the anti-NDA vote.
Congress and Left parties underperformed (9-14 and 11-14 seats), failing to expand beyond pockets. Meanwhile, the NDA's broader coalition—BJP's upper-caste pull, JD(U)'s EBC sway, and allies like LJP—commanded 45-48% vote share, dominating urban and North Bihar belts.
Women Voters and the Welfare Trap
High female turnout (71%) was a double-edged sword. Nitish's schemes—like Rs 1,000 monthly aid and prohibition—garnered 50%+ women's support, rewarding incumbency over Tejashwi's bolder Rs 30,000 pledge.
Older women prioritized immediate relief; youth sought jobs, but the NDA framed its record—Patna Metro, flood control—as tangible progress. Tejashwi's digital blitz reached urban millennials, but rural women, key to Bihar's math, leaned toward continuity.