The Karnataka elections, to be held on May 12 with counting on May 15, will serve as the stepping stone for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The outcome will especially galvanise the BJP and the Congress and could have a significant impact on assembly polls due in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram later this year. What happens in Karnataka will also set the ball rolling for future alliances and strategies.
The Congress is playing on sub-nationalist card. Portraying the BJP as a party that seeks to impose Hindi and North Indian ethos, Mr Siddaramaiah has aggressively promoted Kannadiga and even unveiled a state flag.
Minister Siddaramaiah succeeds in his scintillating plan to turn Yeddyurappa’s Hindu upper-caste of Lingayats into a separate religion with a ‘minority’ tag. Yeddyurappa will become one of BJP’s ‘minority’ showpieces like an MJ Akbar or a Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi!
But it would be a mistake to see the election as only one between personalities. Like any major Indian political battle, the Karnataka dynamic has two major elements: development and identity. A key political issue is how the Congress government has managed urban governance, especially in Bengaluru, and rural incomes. The BJP is banking heavily on the fact that the state capital remains inadequate in terms of infrastructure, civic amenities and traffic and hopes to tap into the discontent.
Amit Shah was in the state, trying to counter Siddaramiah government's latest move to turn over BJP's support base amid the Lingayat community . However the local public is happy with Siddaramaiah’s religion card and this is going to change the whole game in Karnataka.