The upcoming assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, scheduled to be held on November 17, 2023, are being seen as a battle of prestige and survival for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the opposition Congress party. The elections will decide the fate of the 230-member Madhya Pradesh Legislative Assembly, and the results will be announced on December 3, 2023.
The BJP, led by Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, is seeking to retain power in the state for the fourth consecutive term. The BJP has been in power in Madhya Pradesh since 2003, except for a brief period of 15 months from December 2018 to March 2020, when the Congress formed the government under Kamal Nath. The BJP came back to power in March 2020 after 22 Congress MLAs resigned from the assembly and joined the BJP, along with Jyotiraditya Scindia, a former Congress leader and a close aide of Rahul Gandhi.
The BJP is banking on its development agenda, its welfare schemes, its handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, and its popularity among various sections of society, especially women, farmers, and youth. The BJP is also highlighting its achievements at the Centre under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and its strong leadership in the state under Shivraj Singh Chouhan. The BJP has also tried to consolidate its support base among the upper castes, the OBCs, and the SCs/STs by giving them adequate representation in its candidate list.
The Congress, on the other hand, is trying to regain its lost ground in Madhya Pradesh by exposing the alleged failures and corruption of the BJP government. The Congress is also accusing the BJP of engineering defections and destabilizing its government in 2020. The Congress is projecting Kamal Nath as its chief ministerial candidate, and is hoping to win back the trust of the voters who had given it a narrow majority in 2018. The Congress is also focusing on issues such as unemployment, inflation, farmers' distress, law and order, and women's safety.
The Congress is also trying to woo back its traditional allies such as the BSP and the SP, which had contested separately in 2018. The Congress is also reaching out to new partners such as the AAP and the CPI(M), which have announced their candidates for some seats. The Congress is also relying on its star campaigners such as Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, Sachin Pilot, Digvijaya Singh, and Shashi Tharoor.
The elections in Madhya Pradesh are expected to be a close contest between the BJP and the Congress, with both parties claiming to have an edge over each other. According to some opinion polls conducted by various media outlets and agencies, the BJP is likely to emerge as the single largest party, but may fall short of a clear majority. The Congress is expected to improve its tally from 2018, but may not be able to form the government on its own. The smaller parties and independents may play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the elections.
The elections in Madhya Pradesh are not only important for the state politics, but also for the national politics. A victory for the BJP would boost its morale ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and would strengthen its position as the dominant political force in India. A victory for the Congress would revive its hopes of making a comeback at the national level, and would challenge the BJP's hegemony. The elections in Madhya Pradesh are thus a test of leadership, performance, and credibility for both parties.