Prime Minister Narendra Modi's speech at a rally in Gwalior on October 25, 2023, where he praised the Scindia family for their contribution to the nation, has triggered speculation on whether Union Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia will be the next chief minister of Rajasthan if the BJP comes to power in the upcoming assembly elections.
Modi, who was campaigning for the BJP candidates in Madhya Pradesh, where Scindia had switched from the Congress to the BJP in March 2020, said that the Scindia family had always stood by the people and the country. He said that Scindia's grandmother, Vijaya Raje Scindia, was one of the founding members of the BJP and a stalwart of the Jan Sangh. He also said that Scindia's father, Madhavrao Scindia, was a visionary leader who had worked for the development of Madhya Pradesh and India. He added that Scindia himself had followed their footsteps and joined the BJP to serve the nation.
Modi's remarks have been seen as a signal of his endorsement of Scindia as a potential chief ministerial candidate for Rajasthan, where the BJP is hoping to oust the incumbent Congress government led by Ashok Gehlot. Rajasthan will go to polls on November 17, 2023, along with four other states.
Scindia, who is currently the Union Minister of Civil Aviation, is a popular and influential leader in Rajasthan, where he has a large following among the Rajput community. He is also a close relative of former Rajasthan chief minister and BJP national vice president Vasundhara Raje, who is his aunt. Raje, who has been the chief minister of Rajasthan twice, is also eyeing the top post for the third time. She has been projecting herself as the face of the BJP in Rajasthan and has been campaigning extensively across the state.
However, Raje's fate may depend on the outcome of the Karnataka assembly elections, which are also scheduled to be held on November 17, 2023. Raje is said to have a strong rapport with Karnataka chief minister B.S. Yediyurappa, who is facing a rebellion from some of his party MLAs and ministers. If Yediyurappa manages to retain his chair after the elections, he may back Raje's claim for the Rajasthan chief minister's post. But if he loses his position, Raje may lose her bargaining power within the BJP.
The BJP high command is yet to announce its chief ministerial candidate for Rajasthan, keeping both Raje and Scindia in suspense. The party has also not given any clear indication of its preference for either of them. Some BJP leaders have said that the party will decide its chief minister after the elections based on the performance of the candidates and the feedback from the voters. Others have said that the party will follow Modi's guidance and choose a leader who can deliver good governance and development in Rajasthan.
The Congress, meanwhile, has declared Gehlot as its chief ministerial candidate and has fielded him from his Sardarpura bastion. Gehlot's former deputy Sachin Pilot, who had rebelled against him in 2020 but later reconciled with him after intervention from Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, will contest from Tonk constituency. The Congress is hoping to retain power in Rajasthan by highlighting its achievements in handling the Covid-19 pandemic, providing relief to farmers and workers, and implementing various welfare schemes.
The elections in Rajasthan are expected to be a close contest between the Congress and the BJP, with both parties claiming to have an edge over each other. According to some opinion polls¹, ², ³, ⁴, ⁵, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , conducted by various media outlets and agencies, the Congress is likely to emerge as the single largest party but may fall short of a clear majority. The BJP is expected to improve its tally from 2018 but may not be able to form the government on its own. The smaller parties and independents may play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the elections.
The elections in Rajasthan are not only important for the state politics but also for the national politics. A victory for either party would boost its morale ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and would strengthen its position as a dominant political force in India. A victory for Scindia or Raje would also enhance their stature within their party and increase their chances of becoming future leaders at the Centre..