The caste survey conducted by the Bihar government under the leadership of Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad is a significant political move that has implications for both the ruling alliance and the opposition BJP in the state. The survey, which was released on October 2, 2023, reveals the population and socio-economic status of various castes and communities in Bihar, especially the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), who constitute more than half of the state's population.
The survey is seen as a masterstroke by Nitish and Lalu to counter the 'confusion politics' of the BJP, which has been trying to woo the OBC voters by projecting Narendra Modi as an OBC leader and promising them various schemes and benefits¹⁴. The survey aims to clear the confusion among the OBC voters about their actual numbers and representation in different spheres of society, and to mobilize them in favour of the ruling alliance, which claims to be the champion of social justice and empowerment for the backward groups.
The survey also has a historical significance, as it is similar to the Mandal Commission report that was brought by V.P. Singh in 1990, which triggered a massive political and social upheaval in the country by introducing 27% reservation for the OBCs in government jobs and educational institutions¹²⁴. The Mandal Commission report had benefited Nitish and Lalu, who emerged as prominent OBC leaders in Bihar and formed a formidable alliance against the Congress, which was seen as a party of the upper castes¹²⁴. Now, Nitish and Lalu hope to repeat their success by using the caste survey to challenge the BJP, which has become the dominant party of the upper castes in Bihar.
The survey may also have an impact on the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in 2024, as it could influence the voting patterns and preferences of various castes and communities in Bihar, which has 40 parliamentary seats. The survey could also affect the political strategies and calculations of various parties, such as the BJP, Congress, INDIA, SP, BSP, AAP, etc., who may try to woo or appease different groups with different promises and schemes¹²⁴. The survey could also boost Nitish's political stature and ambitions at the national level, as he could emerge as a potential leader of the anti-BJP front, or even a prime ministerial candidate.
However, the survey may also face some challenges and criticisms from various quarters, such as legal hurdles, data limitations, implementation difficulties, social unrest, etc. The survey may also raise some questions about the validity and feasibility of sub-categorisation as a tool for achieving social justice and empowerment for the OBCs. Some experts may argue that sub-categorisation may create further divisions and conflicts among the OBCs, dilute their collective identity and bargaining power, undermine their constitutional rights and safeguards, and divert attention from the larger issues of caste discrimination and oppression.
The caste survey is a complex and contentious issue that may have far-reaching consequences for Bihar's politics and society. It is a bold and innovative step taken by Nitish and Lalu to counter the BJP's influence and assert their own leadership. It is also a reflection of the changing dynamics and realities of caste politics in India.